Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
15 0x15d3…912e crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%42W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$5
crypto 11% +$2
other 5% −$5
politics 4% $0
tech 2% +$2
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 58 +0.1% -9.5% 72% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses42 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage544d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $61 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? Apr 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $18 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 03 $39 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Sep 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $2 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 15 $53 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $15 $0 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $4,597 −$5 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $16 +$1 +4%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1? Feb 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 24-31? Feb 23 $11 $0 +0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Feb 19 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $61 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 61d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $55 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 90d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 91d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $52 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 121d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $39 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $8 148d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $17 150d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $45 151d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 182d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $18 182d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $35 183d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $39 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 240d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 241d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $39 241d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 272d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $32 272d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 300d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $15 301d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $39 302d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $27 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $30 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 362d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 364d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.41 · official $63.41 (match) · 127 history records