Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15d2…0129 crypto 906 markets active 6d ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-2%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%858W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -2.1% -11.4% 95% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 551 +0.9% -8.7% 97% 3% -8.7%
≤90d 906 -0.9% -10.4% 95% 7% -12.0%
all 906 -0.9% -10.4% 95% 7% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 7% -12.0%
10% -18.9% 3% -20.4%
15% -26.8% 1% -28.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses858 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)906 / 906
History coverage63d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 906 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1838 history records