Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15d1…2f08 sports 395 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,658 (-10%) realized −$1,144 · open −$514
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%177W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$297est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days+$148
14 days+$96
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,639
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +5.4% -4.6% 58% 38% -2.1%
≤30d 49 +2.8% -7.0% 51% 37% -7.3%
≤90d 394 -18.2% -26.0% 45% 37% -23.0%
all 394 -18.2% -26.0% 45% 37% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 37% -23.0%
10% -33.1% 29% -30.4%
15% -39.5% 25% -37.1%
20% -45.5% 18% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,144
Unrealized−$514
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses177 / 217
Est. fees paid−$297
Open positions1
Markets (closed)394 / 395
History coverage76d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 80¢ $514 $0 −$514 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $650 +$81 +12%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 18 $151 +$16 +11%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $211 −$15 -7%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 17 $266 +$112 +42%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $33 +$3 +8%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $6 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $221 −$62 -28%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $42 +$3 +8%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $29 +$14 +48%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $12 +$18 +158%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $7 +$16 +248%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $23 −$2 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $13 −$2 -17%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $47 +$30 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $20 −$11 -56%
ITF Decatur: Ana Grubor vs Olivia Lincer Jun 11 $20 −$19 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $21 +$33 +158%
ITF Martos: Rafael Izquierdo Luque vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qual Jun 10 $3 +$4 +172%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $19 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $7 +$2 +34%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $31 +$2 +5%
ITF Zagreb: Lina Gjorcheska vs Ekaterina Kazionova Jun 10 $7 +$16 +225%
ITF Madrid: Neus Torner Sensano vs Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez Jun 10 $7 +$4 +61%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 10 $14 −$7 -50%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $7 +$7 +103%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Jakub Nicod vs Jakub Filip Jun 10 $7 −$1 -16%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 10 $14 −$7 -50%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 10 $12 −$1 -6%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 10 $22 −$21 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $20 −$19 -98%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 20 $50 −$48 -98%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group D May 20 $232 −$14 -6%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $71 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: May 20 $49 +$47 +95%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner May 20 $20 +$24 +116%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 20 $47 +$54 +114%
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League May 20 $49 −$5 -10%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 81¢ $151 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 81¢ $151 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 80¢ $151 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 77¢ $65 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 76¢ $391 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 77¢ $145 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $153 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $152 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 39¢ $37 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 35¢ $34 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 55¢ $164 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 56¢ $11 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 56¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 45¢ $152 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $22 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $19 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $32 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $19 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 26¢ $174 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 25¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.32 (match) · 1574 history records