Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15d1…ccfe
sports · 242 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$637 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$481 · open −$156
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$312
Realized−$481
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses117 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions26
Markets (closed)216 / 242
History coverage30d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 26 History 216 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days+$336
14 days+$462
30 days−$487
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-2%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $23 $22 −$2 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+20%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $14 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $8 $13 +$4 (+51%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+24%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-16%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-55%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Vitality 68¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$30 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $80 +$23 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $91 +$39 +44%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $99 −$80 -81%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $57 +$23 +42%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs MIBR (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 12 $81 −$5 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $82 +$89 +108%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $71 +$37 +52%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $31 +$35 +113%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $236 +$10 +4%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $41 +$44 +108%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $81 +$26 +32%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$22 +43%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$60 +118%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 10 $51 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $64 +$26 +40%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $76 +$24 +32%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $74 +$76 +102%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $109 +$51 +46%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $79 +$21 +26%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $82 −$82 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $18 +$11 +64%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $272 +$68 +25%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $91 −$91 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $51 −$24 -46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $127 +$73 +57%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $339 +$37 +11%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $100 −$60 -60%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $59 +$51 +86%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $54 −$54 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $218 +$51 +24%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $46 −$46 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $124 +$46 +37%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $85 +$75 +88%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $244 −$37 -15%
Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $50 −$30 -60%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $268 −$139 -52%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $50 +$60 +118%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $56 +$44 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $51 −$38 -75%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $51 +$69 +137%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $91 −$91 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $151 +$81 +54%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $352 +$82 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% −$740
other 7% +$142
finance 1% −$16
crypto 0% −$9
world 0% −$10
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 49¢ $50 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL Spirit 12¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 77¢ $80 3h
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Monte 70¢ $57 10h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 62¢ $50 10h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 68¢ $110 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $91 10h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 61¢ $99 10h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $82 11h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $31 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $171 15h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $82 18h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $91 25h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $12 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $3 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $125 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $155 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $81 38h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY FURIA 47¢ $41 38h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 46¢ $31 39h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 75¢ $81 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $71 40h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 45¢ $51 40h
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 69¢ $51 40h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL Yes 64¢ $54 2d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 71¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +6.7% -3.5% 63% 59% -1.3%
≤30d 215 -3.1% -12.3% 54% 51% -11.9%
≤90d 216 -2.5% -11.8% 54% 51% -11.9%
all 216 -2.5% -11.8% 54% 51% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 51% -11.9%
10% -20.3% 46% -20.3%
15% -28.0% 37% -28.0%
20% -35.0% 30% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.87 · official $311.92 (match) · 741 history records