trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +733.3% | +654.0% | 100% | 100% | +654.0% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +203.3% | +174.4% | 80% | 80% | +41.2% |
| all | 32 | +45.6% | +31.7% | 66% | 62% | +6.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +31.7% | 62% | +6.7% |
| 10% | +19.1% | 56% | -3.5% |
| 15% | +7.6% | 47% | -12.8% |
| 20% | -3.0% | 34% | -21.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 64¢ | 63¢ | $122 | $120 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | No | 48¢ | 80¢ | $40 | $66 | +$26 (+65%) |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | No | 49¢ | 50¢ | $20 | $21 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | No | 50¢ | 50¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 46¢ | 10¢ | $30 | $6 | −$24 (-79%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 19¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+13%) |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | No | 52¢ | 50¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | Yes | 40¢ | 1¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jun 01 | $10 | +$73 | +733% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 12 | $5 | +$11 | +217% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | May 12 | $25 | +$33 | +133% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 12 | $40 | +$13 | +33% |
| Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? | Apr 20 | $55 | −$55 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? | Mar 18 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa | Mar 18 | $30 | +$10 | +33% |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | Feb 20 | $22 | +$9 | +41% |
| Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jan 02 | $10 | −$6 | -60% |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jan 02 | $10 | −$4 | -38% |
| Will Trump meet with Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in 2025? | Jan 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | Jan 02 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | Jan 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | Jan 02 | $10 | +$4 | +41% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31? | Jan 02 | $20 | +$1 | +5% |
| Ukraine election called in 2025? | Jan 02 | $113 | +$15 | +14% |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Dec 12 | $10 | +$14 | +144% |
| Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | Dec 12 | $20 | +$9 | +43% |
| Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Oct 21 | $15 | +$6 | +38% |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? | Sep 25 | $3 | +$7 | +223% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? | Sep 01 | $10 | +$11 | +112% |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? | Aug 16 | $10 | +$6 | +58% |
| Will Elon register the America Party in July? | Aug 01 | $10 | +$3 | +32% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | Aug 01 | $10 | +$8 | +82% |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31? | Aug 01 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will anyone say "Russia" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call? | Jul 18 | $2 | +$1 | +67% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? | Jul 16 | $15 | +$2 | +15% |
| Mets vs. Orioles | Jul 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Rays vs. Tigers | Jul 10 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Jul 10 | $3 | +$4 | +144% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on July 9? | Jul 09 | $5 | +$11 | +212% |
| Will PSG vs. Real Madrid end in a draw after regulation time? | Jul 09 | $5 | −$3 | -64% |