Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15cf…0de6
other · 238 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$79 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$79 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage123d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 1 History 237 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$21
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? No 97¢ 97¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $359 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $183 +$1 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $279 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $306 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $440 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $168 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $149 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $361 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $243 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $170 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $121 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $266 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $343 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $111 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $344 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $210 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $126 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $208 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $131 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $143 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $186 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $524 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 03 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $382 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $863 −$2 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 30 $200 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $238 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 28 $120 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$40
sports 23% −$20
politics 8% −$8
culture 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$2
world 4% $0
economics 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $51 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 4h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $51 5h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $51 6h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 8h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 10h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 11h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 13h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 14h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 16h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 20h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 22h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 23h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 25h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 27h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 28h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 30h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 31h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 37h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 40h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 40h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 41h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $41 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $11 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 193 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.67 · official $50.67 (match) · 1264 history records