Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15ce…bf7a sports 605 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+1%) realized +$31 · open +$32
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%341W / 263L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$211
14 days−$277
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1
other 2% −$17
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -21.2% -28.7% 40% 39% -28.9%
≤30d 415 -3.0% -12.2% 55% 54% -12.7%
≤90d 604 -0.1% -9.6% 56% 51% -10.3%
all 604 -0.1% -9.6% 56% 51% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 51% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 44% -18.9%
15% -26.2% 37% -26.7%
20% -33.4% 28% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses341 / 263
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions1
Markets (closed)604 / 605
History coverage39d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 604 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 38¢ 62¢ $50 $82 +$32 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3 +$3 +104%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 +$10 +69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $39 +$11 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $51 +$35 +69%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $7 +$13 +180%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 −$11 -21%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $28 +$18 +66%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $9 $0 +4%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 19 $5 +$4 +84%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $5 +$3 +67%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6 +$9 +142%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 +$14 +128%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -64%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 $0 -18%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +108%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +113%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$2 +164%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +196%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +205%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $40 −$5 -12%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 38¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 60¢ $15 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 46¢ $7 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $2 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $24 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $39 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $15 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $27 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 60¢ $6 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $9 24h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $6 28h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $14 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $51 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 40¢ $40 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 49¢ $51 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 60¢ $5 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 59¢ $14 29h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 95¢ $46 30h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 48¢ $12 30h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 56¢ $28 30h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $2 31h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 37¢ $3 31h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $4 31h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $1 31h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.58 · official $81.58 (match) · 2078 history records