Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
15 0x15ce…1e6a politics 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate16%19W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$11
politics 36% −$11
sports 13% +$83
tech 5% −$1
world 5% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 120 +1.7% -8.0% 16% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 9% -9.3%
10% -16.8% 8% -18.0%
15% -24.8% 7% -25.9%
20% -32.2% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×11.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses19 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage132d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $226 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $276 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $213 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $257 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $423 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $263 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $189 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $263 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $224 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $441 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $186 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $265 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $198 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $217 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $231 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $438 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $189 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $386 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $401 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $257 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $192 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $235 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 42h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $39 42h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $39 45h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 45h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 10d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $21 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $21 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 12d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 21d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $213 24d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $213 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $257 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $257 25d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $244 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 369 history records