Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15ce…0842
crypto · 47 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$19 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$15 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$26 +484%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -9.8% -18.4% 49% 47% -16.5%
≤30d 47 -9.8% -18.4% 49% 47% -16.5%
≤90d 47 -9.8% -18.4% 49% 47% -16.5%
all 47 -9.8% -18.4% 49% 47% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 47% -16.5%
10% -26.2% 38% -24.5%
15% -33.3% 21% -31.8%
20% -39.8% 11% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records