Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:37:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x15cd…057f crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$359
7 days+$359
14 days+$359
30 days+$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +28.8% +16.5% 34% 34% +13.9%
≤30d 29 +28.8% +16.5% 34% 34% +13.9%
≤90d 36 +6.0% -4.1% 28% 28% +12.5%
all 36 +6.0% -4.1% 28% 28% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 28% +12.5%
10% -13.3% 28% +1.7%
15% -21.7% 28% -8.1%
20% -29.4% 28% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$33 · ×3.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage90d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $53 +$141 +268%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$72 +273%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $105 +$121 +115%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $58 +$192 +330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $69 +$89 +130%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $53 +$65 +123%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$28 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $89 −$85 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$54 +206%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $110 +$180 +164%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $58 −$25 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $141 −$112 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$272 +1022%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Mar 24 $8 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$1 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $16 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $99 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $221 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $59 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $37 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $18 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.04 · official $191.04 (match) · 113 history records