Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:42:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15cd…1294 crypto 1987 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,052 (+2%) realized +$3,052 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate70%1506W / 646L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day54.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,112
sports 1% +$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 562 -33.6% -39.9% 54% 31% -60.3%
≤30d 1239 -13.9% -22.1% 66% 53% -19.1%
≤90d 2152 -8.9% -17.5% 70% 59% -14.9%
all 2152 -8.9% -17.5% 70% 59% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 59% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 39% -23.0%
15% -32.6% 23% -30.5%
20% -39.2% 12% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$76 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,052
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1506 / 646
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2152 / 1987
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day54.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2152 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $26 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records