trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 20% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 21 | -4.3% | -13.4% | 52% | 0% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.4% | 0% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -21.7% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -29.3% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -36.2% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $34 | $34 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 26 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 24 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 23 | $34 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe | Dec 14 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 27 | $9 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 15 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 13 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | Apr 09 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tony Finau win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 08 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi | Apr 07 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 | Apr 05 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 05 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $13 | $0 | +4% |
| Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? | Mar 16 | $14 | −$2 | -12% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? | Mar 13 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 12 | $16 | $0 | +2% |