Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15cd…4e29
crypto · 147 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$178 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$175 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$175
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses74 / 69
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)143 / 147
History coverage68d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 143 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$36
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 72¢ 76¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 73¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Monte 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$2 -14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St Jun 13 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$2 +223%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +78%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 08 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $2 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $2 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $1 −$1 -70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 11 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 19 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 18 $3 +$3 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 18 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$3 -87%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Apr 17 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 17 $2 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% −$128
crypto 38% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 72¢ $2 4m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 72¢ $2 5m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 72¢ $3 5m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $1 5m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 81¢ $1 21m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 12¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 13¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 7¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 8¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 17¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 10¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 74¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 27¢ $1 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 16¢ $0 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $1 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 56¢ $4 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $1 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 36¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -31.2% -37.8% 39% 32% -38.1%
≤30d 34 -29.2% -35.9% 41% 35% -36.7%
≤90d 143 -16.3% -24.3% 52% 45% -27.4%
all 143 -16.3% -24.3% 52% 45% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 45% -27.4%
10% -31.6% 33% -34.3%
15% -38.2% 22% -40.7%
20% -44.2% 18% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.28 · official $10.41 · 546 history records