Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15cc…bfaa sports 279 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$787 (-7%) realized −$806 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%88W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$38
14 days+$107
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$120
crypto 39% −$725
other 11% −$211
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$20
culture 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -9.3% -17.9% 41% 40% -11.0%
≤30d 110 -3.1% -12.3% 37% 35% -9.8%
≤90d 226 -1.5% -10.8% 35% 34% -9.8%
all 260 -7.2% -16.1% 34% 33% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 33% -16.8%
10% -24.1% 31% -24.8%
15% -31.4% 29% -32.0%
20% -38.1% 25% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$32 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized−$806
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses88 / 172
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions8
Markets (closed)260 / 279
History coverage160d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 74¢ 81¢ $98 $108 +$9 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $30 $52 +$22 (+74%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 36¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 22¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $215 +$25 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $152 −$144 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $417 −$84 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $415 +$104 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $305 +$62 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $112 +$15 +14%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$33 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$54 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$11 +42%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$26 +84%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $10 +$6 +62%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$18 +172%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $28 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $122 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $117 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $112 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $45 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $98 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $112 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $157 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $247 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $106 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $139 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $133 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $33 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $46 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $46 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $151 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.69 · official $327.12 (match) · 756 history records