Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15c9…2445 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%49W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$5
crypto 12% +$1
tech 3% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 61 -0.0% -9.5% 80% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses49 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage526d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? Jan 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $23 $0 +1%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 12 $17 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? Mar 20 $4,685 −$5 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 28d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 29d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 60d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 99¢ $40 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 91d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 92d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $44 121d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $4 148d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 148d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $48 150d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? BUY No 100¢ $4 180d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 180d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $55 181d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $19 210d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $41 211d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 99¢ $10 242d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $14 242d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 242d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $11 271d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 272d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $35 272d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 300d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $23 301d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $45 301d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $16 332d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $43 333d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.02 · official $67.02 (match) · 127 history records