Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x15c7…5333 world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23 (+3%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$8
other 11% $0
weather 8% +$1
crypto 4% +$1
sports 3% $0
politics 3% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +1.3% -8.4% 31% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 13 +1.3% -8.4% 31% 0% -8.3%
all 24 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 4% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 4% -6.9%
10% -15.7% 4% -15.8%
15% -23.8% 4% -24.0%
20% -31.3% 4% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.35 per $1 lost it wins $4.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage477d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $86 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $82 +$3 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $54 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $62 +$5 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $41 −$1 -1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 19 $6 −$6 -87%
Will 'Opus' gross less than 3m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $31 $0 +2%
Will Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 06 $13 +$18 +133%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 5? Mar 04 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 4? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Lehigh vs. Loyola Maryland Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $37 44m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $8 44m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $45 46m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $28 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $37 5h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $13 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $39 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $52 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $2 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $2 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $59 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $59 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $13 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $20 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $6 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $6 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $7 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $48 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $6 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records