Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15c6…c9dc sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5,312 (-10%) realized −$5,587 · open +$275
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,772per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3,503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days−$21,032
14 days−$21,032
30 days−$21,032
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% +$14,297
other 42% −$21,883
sports 11% +$2,109
world 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -38.0% -43.9% 27% 27% -94.9%
≤30d 11 -38.0% -43.9% 27% 27% -94.9%
≤90d 13 +0.4% -9.1% 31% 31% -82.6%
all 16 -8.5% -17.3% 31% 31% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 31% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 31% -28.0%
15% -32.4% 31% -35.0%
20% -39.0% 31% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,508 vs −$2,136 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$3,503
Realized−$5,587
Unrealized+$275
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage602d
Avg bet$2,772
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $3,028 $3,329 +$301 (+10%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $205 −$200 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $256 +$551 +215%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $101 +$55 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $609 −$600 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $102 −$53 -52%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 15 $20,603 −$20,603 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $152 +$98 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 12 $24 −$5 -19%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $574 +$2,537 +442%
Rams vs. Eagles Jan 20 $501 −$501 -100%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 20 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $24,780 +$14,297 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $154 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $507 6d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $41 6d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $93 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 17¢ $49 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 34¢ $102 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $102 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $102 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $102 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $152 6d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,309 17d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $750 17d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 17d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $750 17d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 18d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 18d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $33 19d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 19d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 19d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 19d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $79 19d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 20d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 20d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,503.02 · official $3,503.02 (match) · 97 history records