Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15c2…ebc0 crypto 874 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Total PnL −$6,322 (-9%) realized −$3,938 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate65%566W / 307L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$32
14 days+$62
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$3,894
crypto 13% −$14
politics 0% −$28
sports 0% −$6
world 0% +$4
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.0% -11.4% 77% 54% -13.0%
≤30d 34 +1.8% -7.9% 76% 59% -5.8%
≤90d 152 -36.4% -42.4% 39% 23% -24.2%
all 873 +0.1% -9.5% 65% 41% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 41% -14.8%
10% -18.1% 25% -22.9%
15% -26.0% 14% -30.4%
20% -33.3% 7% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$26 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$3,938
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses566 / 307
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)873 / 874
History coverage210d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 873 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $139 $0 −$139 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $126 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $117 +$25 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 08 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $102 +$45 +44%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $146 +$210 +144%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $148 −$138 -94%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 01 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 04 $35 +$6 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 04 $21 −$8 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 04 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 04 $67 −$34 -51%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 04 $9 −$3 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 03 $35 −$20 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 03 $25 −$4 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $85 +$7 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $71 +$17 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Mar 30 $28 −$9 -31%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Mar 29 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 28 $14 +$12 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 28 $72 +$4 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 27 $11 +$10 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $4.97 (match) · 3500 history records