Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15c0…befd crypto 949 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$592 (-4%) realized −$566 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%371W / 573L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$100
14 days−$931
30 days−$1,158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,025
weather 1% +$14
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -15.9% -23.9% 39% 39% -20.7%
≤30d 464 -16.6% -24.6% 41% 36% -27.7%
≤90d 944 -21.3% -28.8% 39% 35% -23.1%
all 944 -21.3% -28.8% 39% 35% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 35% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 30% -30.4%
15% -41.8% 25% -37.1%
20% -47.5% 21% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$566
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses371 / 573
Open positions5
Markets (closed)944 / 949
History coverage69d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 944 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$35 +675%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$14 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$22 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +379%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 19m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 20m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 22m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 24m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $40 45m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $23 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $17 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $17 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.49 · official $29.49 (match) · 2668 history records