Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15bc…4a7e sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$91 (-4%) realized −$140 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day50.5pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$13
other 5% −$64
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -31.4% -37.9% 36% 27% -20.8%
≤30d 11 -31.4% -37.9% 36% 27% -20.8%
≤90d 11 -31.4% -37.9% 36% 27% -20.8%
all 11 -31.4% -37.9% 36% 27% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.9% 27% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -43.9% 27% -28.4%
15% -49.3% 27% -35.3%
20% -54.3% 27% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$63 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,038
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day50.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Walczaki 44¢ 48¢ $658 $717 +$59 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B OG 53¢ 52¢ $180 $175 −$5 (-3%)
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) K27 48¢ 46¢ $90 $87 −$4 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Sashi Esport 54¢ 52¢ $61 $60 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $112 −$63 -56%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $96 −$94 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $249 +$190 +76%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $76 +$47 +62%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $97 +$80 +82%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $93 −$91 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $104 −$11 -10%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $133 −$132 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 46¢ $301 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 46¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 45¢ $47 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $112 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 44¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 44¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 43¢ $258 1h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 48¢ $4 1h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 48¢ $8 2h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 48¢ $4 2h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 49¢ $7 2h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 49¢ $2 2h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 49¢ $8 2h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 49¢ $3 3h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 48¢ $10 3h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 48¢ $3 3h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 48¢ $11 3h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 49¢ $5 3h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 49¢ $13 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $96 4h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 100¢ $439 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 59¢ $5 4h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 59¢ $33 4h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 59¢ $3 4h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 59¢ $5 4h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 60¢ $4 4h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 49¢ $6 5h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 49¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,038.31 · official $1,038.31 (match) · 63 history records