Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x15bc…5bbc crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$355 (+2%) realized +$346 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate97%62W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$891now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$49
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$173
other 21% +$108
economics 13% +$21
finance 8% +$5
world 4% +$21
politics 2% +$1
sports 1% +$19
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 5 +7.1% -3.1% 100% 20% -5.3%
≤90d 14 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 7% -8.3%
all 64 +3.2% -6.6% 97% 9% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 9% -8.2%
10% -15.5% 3% -17.0%
15% -23.7% 0% -25.0%
20% -31.2% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$558) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×19.38 per $1 lost it wins $19.38
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$891
Realized+$346
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses62 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)64 / 68
History coverage250d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $410 $411 +$1 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $219 $219 −$0 (-0%)
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $125 $131 +$6 (+5%)
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $129 $130 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 23 $218 +$1 +1%
Will Phantom launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $144 +$48 +33%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $559 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $130 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 04 $133 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 20 $558 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 18 $543 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 9? May 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 04 $557 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 27 $554 +$3 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $552 +$2 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 06 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 31 $521 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Mar 28 $521 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 24 $520 +$1 +0%
Will Phantom launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $713 +$9 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 20? Mar 20 $220 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20? Mar 19 $217 +$2 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 17 $203 +$14 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $203 +$1 +0%
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 14 $83 +$18 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13? Mar 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? Mar 13 $69 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.70 March 2-8? Mar 10 $31 $0 +0%
Pelicans vs. Kings Mar 08 $30 +$1 +2%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mar 04 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 27 $471 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 25 $208 +$3 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Feb 13 $224 +$4 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 09 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 February 2-8? Feb 08 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 06 $806 +$3 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? Feb 02 $968 +$2 +0%
Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? Jan 31 $83 +$5 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by January 31? Jan 29 $220 +$14 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 27 $728 +$7 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $1,090 +$12 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 30 $217 +$3 +1%
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? Dec 24 $115 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $1,174 +$15 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 08 $1,137 +$12 +1%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Dec 05 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 05 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Nov 29 $67 +$6 +9%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of November? Nov 28 $26 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 28 $1,054 +$56 +5%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 25 $118 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 23? Nov 24 $417 +$46 +11%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch? Nov 23 $867 +$16 +2%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Nov 23 $96 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $219 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $220 44h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $410 10d
Will Phantom launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 14d
Will Phantom launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $168 15d
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $129 18d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 18d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $93 18d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 20d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $88 20d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $46 20d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $133 24d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $218 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $211 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $140 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $559 34d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $559 35d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $558 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $543 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $543 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 9? BUY No 99¢ $15 52d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $557 58d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $557 59d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $554 65d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $111 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $891.17 · official $891.17 (match) · 215 history records