trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $2,896 | $2,868 | −$28 (-1%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 65¢ | 62¢ | $1,653 | $1,564 | −$89 (-5%) |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | Yes | 76¢ | 82¢ | $799 | $868 | +$69 (+9%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | No | 88¢ | 97¢ | $396 | $438 | +$42 (+11%) |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | No | 73¢ | 61¢ | $385 | $325 | −$61 (-16%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | Jun 12 | $1,665 | −$413 | -25% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $446 | +$106 | +24% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 09 | $391 | +$5 | +1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $1,936 | +$929 | +48% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 05 | $956 | +$51 | +5% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | Jun 04 | $190 | +$89 | +47% |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $672 | +$514 | +76% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1,788 | +$785 | +44% |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | May 21 | $863 | +$186 | +22% |
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | May 16 | $218 | +$17 | +8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 16 | $521 | +$180 | +34% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 14 | $581 | +$112 | +19% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | May 12 | $216 | +$3 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 07 | $374 | +$2 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +12.0% | +1.4% | 75% | 50% | +3.3% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +25.4% | +13.4% | 92% | 67% | +13.1% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +21.9% | +10.3% | 93% | 57% | +11.9% |
| all | 14 | +21.9% | +10.3% | 93% | 57% | +11.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +10.3% | 57% | +11.9% |
| 10% | -0.3% | 43% | +1.2% |
| 15% | -9.9% | 29% | -8.5% |
| 20% | -18.8% | 7% | -17.5% |