Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
15 0x15ba…3630 sports 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$127 (+12%) realized +$126 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%27W / 26L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$95
14 days+$41
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$56
other 44% +$68
crypto 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +52.1% +37.6% 67% 67% +43.3%
≤30d 31 +33.1% +20.4% 55% 55% +7.4%
≤90d 38 +29.1% +16.8% 58% 58% +9.2%
all 53 +16.2% +5.2% 51% 47% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 47% +1.0%
10% -4.9% 47% -8.7%
15% -14.1% 45% -17.5%
20% -22.5% 34% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses27 / 26
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage124d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$11 -56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$89 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$36 +711%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$51 +165%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$13 +65%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $20 +$8 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $31 +$39 +128%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $30 +$18 +60%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 31 $10 +$6 +63%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 31 $30 +$20 +65%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $10 −$8 -83%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC end in a draw? May 27 $20 +$8 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 26 $15 +$11 +74%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $30 +$12 +41%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $61 +$19 +32%
Madrid Open: Learner Tien vs Adolfo Vallejo Apr 25 $10 +$7 +71%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $20 +$15 +76%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-12? Apr 15 $20 +$12 +60%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 20 $10 +$26 +257%
76ers vs. Hawks Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Timberwolves Mar 07 $10 +$4 +39%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $10 −$9 -91%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CS 2 de Mayo win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 24 $10 −$1 -7%
Spurs vs. Pistons Feb 24 $10 −$9 -92%
Will RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Feb 21 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $10 +$21 +212%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 8d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 10d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 10d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 11d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 11d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 11d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 12d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 1¢ $0 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 53¢ $20 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 60¢ $20 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.71 · official $50.71 (match) · 96 history records