Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x15ba…f30d other 731 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,592 (+2%) realized +$1,643 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%335W / 390L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$792
14 days+$514
30 days+$403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$1,091
other 47% +$531
crypto 1% +$249
world 1% −$337
culture 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +38.5% +25.3% 46% 43% +1.4%
≤30d 171 +12.9% +2.1% 46% 44% -5.5%
≤90d 347 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 41% -18.8%
all 725 +3.1% -6.7% 46% 44% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 44% -7.3%
10% -15.7% 42% -16.1%
15% -23.8% 40% -24.2%
20% -31.3% 37% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$58 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$530
Realized+$1,643
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses335 / 390
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions6
Markets (closed)725 / 731
History coverage594d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 725 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 80¢ $171 $238 +$68 (+39%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $121 $95 −$26 (-21%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $90 $45 −$45 (-50%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $15 −$45 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 269 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $87 +$33 +38%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $545 +$9 +2%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $89 −$21 -23%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $165 −$117 -71%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 −$57 -93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $282 −$251 -89%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $241 +$24 +10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $18 +$32 +186%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $39 +$51 +133%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $9 +$61 +650%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $110 +$390 +354%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $233 +$117 +50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $107 −$106 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $66 −$64 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $243 +$257 +106%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $279 −$275 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $99 +$72 +73%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $123 +$77 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $87 −$75 -87%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $242 −$213 -88%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $85 −$84 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $113 −$112 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $130 −$129 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $148 −$145 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $213 −$210 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $64 −$11 -18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $139 −$137 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $49 +$31 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $241 +$259 +108%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $255 +$145 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 +$276 +1150%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $224 −$2 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $53 +$117 +218%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $248 +$252 +102%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $13 +$87 +669%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $77 +$123 +158%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $99 +$51 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $116 +$104 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $74 +$56 +76%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $112 +$137 +122%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $130 −$13 -10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 74¢ $367 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $370 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 58¢ $69 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Australia 16¢ $48 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 63¢ $187 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 3¢ $4 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 2¢ $31 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $43 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $133 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $89 2h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 72¢ $87 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 43¢ $79 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $53 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $25 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $97 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $111 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $115 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $74 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $37 10h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $33 10h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $34 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 40¢ $20 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 39¢ $20 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 67¢ $265 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $127 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $113 35h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 13¢ $9 42h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $31 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $529.50 · official $529.50 (match) · 1809 history records