Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15b9…2b0a crypto 6 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-7%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -33.1% -39.5% 0% 0% -44.9%
≤30d 6 -21.9% -29.4% 33% 0% -19.0%
≤90d 6 -21.9% -29.4% 33% 0% -19.0%
all 6 -21.9% -29.4% 33% 0% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 0% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 0% -26.8%
15% -42.3% 0% -33.8%
20% -48.0% 0% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $29 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $29 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records