Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15b7…0a3d other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$2
world 28% $0
politics 24% $0
sports 15% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 41 -1.0% -10.4% 24% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage301d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 91¢ 90¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $12 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $32 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $28 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Sep 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 03 $26 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Sep 02 $37 $0 +1%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 25 $33 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 22–August 29? Aug 24 $10 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $28 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $18 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $19 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $28 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $16 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $12 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $28 3d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $5 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $24 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $6 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $23 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $10 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $18 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $28 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $31 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $31 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $32 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.05 · official $28.05 (match) · 140 history records