Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x15b3…87fc other 59 markets active 14h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%13W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$23
other 14% +$6
economics 4% $0
sports 3% +$10
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 12% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 46 +2.5% -7.3% 24% 13% -8.7%
all 58 +1.8% -7.9% 22% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 10% -9.6%
10% -16.7% 10% -18.3%
15% -24.8% 9% -26.2%
20% -32.2% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses13 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage614d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $84 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $145 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $7 +$7 +105%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $70 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 +$7 +79%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $11 +$5 +48%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $6 +$6 +90%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $10 +$7 +64%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $15 +$4 +29%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 26? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 20 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 13h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 14h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 37h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $0 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 7d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $7 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 12d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 13d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 13d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 13d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 14d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.00 · official $31.00 (match) · 372 history records