Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x15b0…fb46 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% $0
other 35% $0
sports 18% $0
economics 6% $0
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 15% 0% -9.5%
all 17 -0.0% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage107d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $112 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $112 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $113 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $113 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $113 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $113 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $114 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $112 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 12h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $83 12h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $112 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $112 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 18d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 18d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $112 23d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $112 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 31d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 33d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $112 36d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $112 37d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $113 60d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $92 61d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $21 61d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $113 63d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $113 63d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $113 65d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $28 66d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $31 66d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $55 66d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $113 69d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $113 69d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $113 74d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $96 74d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $17 74d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 83d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records