Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15ae…98a8 world 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate43%24W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$6
other 25% +$3
politics 20% −$3
sports 13% −$10
finance 3% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 62% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 28 -2.1% -11.4% 39% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 44 -2.9% -12.2% 39% 2% -9.3%
all 56 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 11% -9.7%
10% -17.6% 7% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 7% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses24 / 32
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage527d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $40 +$1 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $51 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -29%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $121 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $4 −$1 -23%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $44 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $40 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $2 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $31 +$6 +19%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $34 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $70 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $36 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $242 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $265 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $266 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $242 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $6 +$1 +10%
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Feb 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Northern Colorado vs. Sacramento State Feb 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Will the match between Fenerbahce and Anderlecht end in a draw? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Oral Roberts vs. North Dakota State Feb 14 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Jeffrey Randall Allen (Player 831) win the Beast Games? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Robert Morris vs. Cleveland State Feb 13 $3 +$5 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $45 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 70¢ $41 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $8 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $32 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $44 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $43 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.91 · official $6.44 (match) · 204 history records