Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15ac…f3ba sports 1085 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (166 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17,351 (+7%) realized +$17,405 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%1037W / 37L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day165.9pace
Fees−$345est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$8,962
other 11% +$5
world 0% +$11
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (166 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 721 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 2% -15.7%
≤30d 1074 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 2% -12.6%
≤90d 1074 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 2% -12.6%
all 1074 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 2% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 2% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 1% -21.0%
15% -26.4% 1% -28.6%
20% -33.6% 1% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$410 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$2,124
Realized+$17,405
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1037 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$345
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1074 / 1085
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$243
Trades / day165.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1074 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Roberto Carballes Baena 99¢ 100¢ $1,386 $1,399 +$13 (+1%)
Crawford vs. Galarneau: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Norrie vs. Navone: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 67¢ 55¢ $68 $56 −$12 (-18%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 99¢ 49¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 65¢ 55¢ $27 $22 −$4 (-16%)
Kraus vs. Akugue: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Over 99¢ 85¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Jun 17 $396 +$4 +1%
Brunclik vs. Broska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Jade vs. Perot: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 17 $693 +$6 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $179 +$12 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $140 +$10 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $139 +$10 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $186 +$18 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $194 −$44 -22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11,701 −$11,531 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $79 −$78 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $279 +$21 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $500 +$20 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $120 +$6 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $266 +$3 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $148 +$2 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $382 +$4 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $96 +$1 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $187 +$29 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $35 +$3 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $140 +$10 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $172 −$135 -79%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $23 +$2 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $140 +$10 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $140 +$10 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 +$1 +8%
Villanueva vs. Torres: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $84 +$1 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $139 −$139 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $493 +$7 +1%
Kicker vs. Coria: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $102 +$1 +1%
France vs. Senegal: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $68 +$1 +2%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $471 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 99¢ $693 23m
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 99¢ $693 23m
Crawford vs. Galarneau: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 37m
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 99¢ $198 1h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 99¢ $198 1h
Brunclik vs. Broska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 1h
Jade vs. Perot: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $79 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $699 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 99¢ $74 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 99¢ $75 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $142 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $47 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $47 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $142 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $142 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $47 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $142 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $47 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $47 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $142 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $142 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $47 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $47 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $142 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $142 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $47 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $142 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $47 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $142 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $47 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,123.70 · official $2,121.00 (match) · 3500 history records