Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15a7…5ed1 sports 1202 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$499 (+4%) realized +$499 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%619W / 571L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$312
14 days−$3
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$51
sports 48% −$31
other 3% +$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -0.6% -10.1% 54% 48% +3.1%
≤30d 1003 -6.9% -15.8% 51% 42% -10.6%
≤90d 1190 -6.0% -15.0% 52% 43% -7.7%
all 1190 -6.0% -15.0% 52% 43% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 43% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 37% -16.6%
15% -30.5% 31% -24.6%
20% -37.4% 24% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$499
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses619 / 571
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1190 / 1202
History coverage49d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) New York Yankees 79¢ 99¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+26%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 77¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 78¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$3 (+29%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 18¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-48%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Over 45¢ 66¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+46%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+67%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Under 53¢ 42¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-21%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 24¢ 32¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 26¢ 16¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 20¢ 76¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+278%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 63¢ 76¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 80¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 463 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $18 +$6 +36%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $8 +$6 +70%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 +$5 +73%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 16 $16 +$5 +32%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $34 +$16 +48%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $49 +$83 +168%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$7 +112%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 +$162 +459%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$17 +93%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 +$16 +58%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$16 +83%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$44 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $40 +$8 +21%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $36 −$14 -40%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $7 +$1 +18%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $40 −$11 -28%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $7 +$14 +196%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 $0 +4%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $27 −$22 -82%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $17 +$11 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$5 +28%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 21¢ $2 1m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 53¢ $8 2m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 24¢ $4 5m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 17m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 28¢ $7 21m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 35m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 35m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $4 35m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $4 47m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 48m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 65¢ $3 57m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 20¢ $1 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 28¢ $4 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 63¢ $4 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 86¢ $6 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 77¢ $10 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 18¢ $1 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 73¢ $18 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 96¢ $16 2h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 79¢ $14 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 28¢ $2 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 26¢ $3 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 23¢ $1 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 56¢ $4 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.50 · official $102.67 (match) · 3293 history records