Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15a6…bf5d other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (153 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$136,310 (+48%) realized +$136,908 · open −$598
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,587per market
Trades / day152.6pace
Fees−$3,363est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$34,228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79,821
7 days+$73,283
14 days+$61,174
30 days+$69,623
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$70,957
other 35% +$11,239
world 7% −$6,826
tech 2% −$6,116
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (153 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +95.2% +76.6% 43% 36% +112.9%
≤30d 84 +39.5% +26.2% 40% 38% +14.3%
≤90d 84 +39.5% +26.2% 40% 38% +14.3%
all 84 +39.5% +26.2% 40% 38% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.2% 38% +14.3%
10% +14.1% 38% +3.4%
15% ← realistic here +3.1% 37% -6.6%
20% -7.0% 33% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$2,811) neutral
Persistence
early +34% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
28.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,196 vs −$2,141 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$34,228
Realized+$136,908
Unrealized−$598
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$3,363
Open positions38
Markets (closed)84 / 110
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$2,587
Trades / day152.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 82¢ $4,777 $4,583 −$194 (-4%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 38¢ $3,601 $4,099 +$498 (+14%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 79¢ $3,891 $3,617 −$275 (-7%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 99¢ $3,193 $3,313 +$120 (+4%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $3,530 $3,101 −$428 (-12%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 24¢ $531 $2,655 +$2,124 (+400%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $3,677 $1,889 −$1,788 (-49%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1,209 $1,383 +$174 (+14%)
Will James Rodríguez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 44¢ $1,118 $1,118 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $831 $1,039 +$208 (+25%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 44¢ $798 $986 +$188 (+24%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 74¢ $823 $783 −$40 (-5%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $676 $695 +$19 (+3%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 60¢ $600 $672 +$72 (+12%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 32¢ $282 $644 +$362 (+129%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $279 $530 +$251 (+90%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 90¢ $409 $402 −$7 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $503 $393 −$109 (-22%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 44¢ $343 $364 +$20 (+6%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 54¢ $306 $308 +$3 (+1%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 4¢ $1,067 $300 −$767 (-72%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $267 $293 +$26 (+10%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 32¢ $239 $269 +$30 (+12%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $289 $228 −$61 (-21%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $600 $125 −$475 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Truist Championship? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Cadillac Champions Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump endorse Susan Collins for ME-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Manchester United FC leading at halftime? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,100 +$27,900 +1329%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $691 −$691 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,632 +$15,367 +332%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3,111 +$8,000 +257%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $33 +$27 +83%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals Jun 16 $112 −$109 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,849 +$29,587 +1038%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,171 +$14,717 +285%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $778 +$4,100 +527%
Will Stabaek IF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$5 +117%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,710 −$1,710 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6,071 −$6,000 -99%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $37 +$50 +138%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5,789 +$200 +4%
Will Mark Hubbard finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $2,591 +$98 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $2,659 −$1,708 -64%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $6,116 −$6,116 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10,333 −$10,333 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $107 +$161 +150%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 10 $719 −$719 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $10 +$10 +98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $7 +$8 +122%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 09 $687 −$687 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $2,051 −$2,051 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $4,742 −$4,739 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $678 −$549 -81%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $2,562 −$2,545 -99%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $540 −$540 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $603 −$602 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $1,180 −$1,174 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $1,424 +$1,482 +104%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $2,811 +$3,300 +117%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 06 $171 +$192 +113%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $111 −$111 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $426 −$426 -100%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 05 $678 −$678 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 05 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 44m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 45m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 45m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 45m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 45m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 45m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $83 45m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $178 45m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 45m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 46m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 46m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 46m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 46m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 46m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 46m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 46m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $212 46m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 46m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 46m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 46m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 46m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $58 49m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 49m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 49m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 49m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 49m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 49m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $175 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $142 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34,227.58 · official $34,217.05 (match) · 3500 history records