Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15a4…a7bd other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$48 (+9%) realized +$19 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$34
sports 42% +$81
world 5% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +6.4% -3.7% 29% 29% -11.7%
≤30d 38 +6.4% -3.7% 29% 29% -11.7%
≤90d 38 +6.4% -3.7% 29% 29% -11.7%
all 38 +6.4% -3.7% 29% 29% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 29% -11.7%
10% -13.0% 26% -20.1%
15% -21.4% 26% -27.9%
20% -29.1% 26% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$12 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 44
History coverage3d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals Yes 2¢ 12¢ $5 $35 +$30 (+594%)
Cyle Larin: 1+ assists Yes 20¢ 50¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+148%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 32¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-41%)
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 24¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 +$25 +165%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Breel Embolo: 1+ assists Jun 18 $7 +$34 +474%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $20 +$28 +137%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $5 +$61 +1180%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $37 +$45 +122%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$26 +172%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 +$49 +146%
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$11 +107%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$11 +206%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 3¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 36¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 21¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 25¢ $10 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Qatar leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3h
Cyle Larin: 1+ assists BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $5 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5h
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Edin Džeko: 1+ assists AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia- BUY 11¢ $2 6h
Breel Embolo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $7 6h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $7 6h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $15 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 41¢ $20 7h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Patrik Schick: 1+ goals AND Will BUY 10¢ $15 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 21h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 32¢ $6 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 23h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 23h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $30 23h
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.26 · official $85.35 · 65 history records