Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:00:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
15 0x15a2…d451 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate84%46W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$6
crypto 7% +$1
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 +0.2% -9.4% 84% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses46 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage546d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 03 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 01 $27 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 20 $5,930 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Carlton Carrington win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Oklahoma win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 09 $19 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4250 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $275 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1? Feb 06 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 31d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $8 61d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 100¢ $27 61d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 91d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 92d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 122d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $7 148d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $7 149d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 149d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $8 180d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 180d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? BUY No 100¢ $21 182d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $29 212d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $12 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $24 242d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 271d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $21 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 301d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? BUY No 100¢ $27 303d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $4 332d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $31 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 362d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 362d
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 393d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.31 · official $41.31 (match) · 112 history records