Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
15 0x15a2…3e89 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,596 (+122%) realized +$4,832 · open −$236
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$6,934
other 29% −$872
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+45.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +61.0% +45.7% 33% 33% +155.0%
≤30d 15 +61.0% +45.7% 33% 33% +155.0%
≤90d 15 +61.0% +45.7% 33% 33% +155.0%
all 15 +61.0% +45.7% 33% 33% +155.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.7% 33% +155.0%
10% +31.8% 33% +130.6%
15% +19.0% 33% +108.3%
20% +7.4% 33% +87.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +182% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +182% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +155% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,541 vs −$141 · ×10.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.48 per $1 lost it wins $5.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$4,832
Unrealized−$236
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $150 $14 −$136 (-91%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $402 +$1,754 +437%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $409 −$400 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $348 +$1,782 +512%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $198 −$193 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $496 +$2,279 +460%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $765 +$1,756 +229%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $300 −$293 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $129 −$126 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $48 +$134 +278%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$52 -97%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $98 −$95 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 −$67 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 58m
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $2,155 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $402 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 19¢ $102 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $2,130 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $348 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 14¢ $198 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $496 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $2,521 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $434 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $332 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $300 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $46 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $83 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? SELL Yes 59¢ $182 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $98 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $61 3d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.31 · official $19.93 · 27 history records