Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15a1…5ef3
weather · 782 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$49 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$37 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,944
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses676 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions54
Markets (closed)795 / 782
History coverage12d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day221.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 54 History 795 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$305
7 days−$116
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $510 $519 +$9 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? No 99¢ 97¢ $510 $503 −$7 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $306 $306 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $171 $171 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? No 90¢ 100¢ $69 $77 +$8 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? No 93¢ 62¢ $61 $41 −$20 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? No 91¢ 86¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? No 93¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? No 94¢ 76¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Yes 51¢ 86¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 25? Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 25? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or below on May 20? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 31? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 22? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 26? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on May 27? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 25? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 24? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 8? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 27? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 48°C or higher on May 18? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 22? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 23? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 22? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 27? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 23? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 19? Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 1? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on May 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 8? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 28? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 17? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 28? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 25? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 29? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 21? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 1 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 25? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 1? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 31? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 17? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 26? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 23? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$323
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 6m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 40m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 40m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 40m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 40m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 41m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 41m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 44m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 44m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 44m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 44m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 48m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 48m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 48m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 48m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 48m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 49m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 49m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 49m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 49m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 49m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 49m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 49m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 339 -18.9% -26.7% 76% 8% -10.5%
≤30d 795 -7.7% -16.4% 85% 10% -9.7%
≤90d 795 -7.7% -16.4% 85% 10% -9.7%
all 795 -7.7% -16.4% 85% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover221.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 10% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 4% -18.4%
15% -31.7% 3% -26.2%
20% -38.4% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,943.53 · official $1,943.53 (match) · 3500 history records