Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:37:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
15 0x159f…4043 crypto 817 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,796 (-7%) realized −$3,802 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate44%358W / 455L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days+$157
14 days−$279
30 days−$972
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$4,435
sports 32% −$699
other 5% +$404
world 1% +$13
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$20
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.4% -5.6% 48% 48% +4.6%
≤30d 300 -13.1% -21.3% 47% 44% -15.6%
≤90d 381 -19.0% -26.7% 43% 40% -18.4%
all 813 -15.7% -23.7% 44% 34% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 34% -16.9%
10% -31.0% 30% -24.9%
15% -37.7% 26% -32.1%
20% -43.8% 21% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$36 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$3,802
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses358 / 455
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions4
Markets (closed)813 / 817
History coverage172d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 813 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $150 $133 −$17 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 10¢ 32¢ $40 $124 +$84 (+210%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $60 $39 −$21 (-35%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner FOKUS 38¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$7 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $134 +$137 +102%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $138 +$60 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $62 −$22 -35%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $92 −$49 -54%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $16 +$13 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$51 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$11 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$28 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$19 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$1 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$11 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $41 −$34 -82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$15 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$26 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $88 +$73 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $17 −$11 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $47 −$19 -40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $18 +$8 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$24 -58%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $185 +$5 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -81%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $20 −$11 -52%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$29 -51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$2 -16%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$11 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$17 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$16 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$19 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$18 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$17 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$27 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$6 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $114 −$41 -36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $91 −$90 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $62 37m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $155 38m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner SELL FOKUS 29¢ $30 56m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 30¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 46¢ $51 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $201 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $56 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $14 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $17 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $29 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 16h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $20 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 28h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 29h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 29h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 29h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 33h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $30 33h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 37h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.23 · official $296.23 (match) · 2459 history records