Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:47:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
15 0x159d…5de0 crypto 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$950 (+27%) realized +$329 · open +$621
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%73W / 69L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$977now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days−$105
14 days+$222
30 days+$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$532
sports 30% +$365
crypto 15% −$26
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -8.3% -17.1% 48% 42% -13.7%
≤30d 109 -0.8% -10.2% 52% 48% +0.5%
≤90d 142 -0.1% -9.6% 51% 47% -0.5%
all 142 -0.1% -9.6% 51% 47% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 47% -0.5%
10% -18.3% 39% -10.1%
15% -26.2% 32% -18.8%
20% -33.4% 29% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$977
Realized+$329
Unrealized+$621
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses73 / 69
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions10
Markets (closed)142 / 153
History coverage82d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $96 $788 +$692 (+722%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $151 $67 −$84 (-56%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $12 $50 +$38 (+320%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 26¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-29%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+48%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$11 +22%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $127 +$94 +74%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 16 $26 −$13 -52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $123 −$86 -70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $147 −$113 -77%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $76 +$9 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$40 +196%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $76 −$13 -17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $304 −$31 -10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $161 +$44 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 +$14 +27%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $231 +$34 +15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $31 −$13 -42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $59 +$8 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $204 +$266 +131%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $380 +$25 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$4 +351%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $30 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 54m
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 54m
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 52¢ $19 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $45 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $25 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $10 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $221 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 46h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $31 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $22 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 3d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $85 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $976.85 · official $981.18 (match) · 522 history records