Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x159d…7020 sports 87 markets active 8h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$138 (-3%) realized −$137 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%26W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days+$146
14 days+$1,230
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$153
other 12% −$350
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +50.4% +36.1% 44% 44% +38.7%
≤30d 34 +8.9% -1.5% 29% 29% -13.5%
≤90d 81 +8.8% -1.6% 32% 32% -13.5%
all 82 +8.2% -2.1% 32% 32% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 32% -13.6%
10% -11.5% 32% -21.8%
15% -20.1% 32% -29.4%
20% -27.9% 29% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$55 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses26 / 56
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 87
History coverage214d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$16 +78%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$63 +307%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +106%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $201 +$1,534 +761%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $398 −$390 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $205 +$126 +61%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $204 −$200 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $113 −$110 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $410 −$400 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $154 −$150 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $102 +$177 +174%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $305 +$138 +45%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $102 +$155 +152%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $102 −$20 -20%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $31 −$30 -97%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $10 +$37 +365%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $21 +$113 +550%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 8h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 10h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 32h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 43h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $20 43h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 44¢ $20 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia BUY $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 31¢ $20 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 5d
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 6d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 83¢ $1,508 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 38¢ $227 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $99 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.00 · official $39.00 (match) · 155 history records