Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x1597…d74f world 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,061 (-8%) realized −$2,062 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,303per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$484
14 days−$784
30 days−$1,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$1,706
other 21% −$449
sports 5% +$698
politics 5% −$677
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -58.9% -62.8% 25% 25% -26.5%
≤30d 10 -26.9% -33.9% 50% 40% -14.9%
≤90d 12 +12.2% +1.5% 58% 50% -12.4%
all 19 -12.0% -20.4% 42% 37% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 37% -17.0%
10% -28.0% 21% -24.9%
15% -35.0% 21% -32.2%
20% -41.4% 16% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,303) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$342 vs −$443 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$2,062
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage108d
Avg bet$1,303
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $220 $221 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,303 +$656 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,012 −$870 -86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $300 −$300 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $5,000 −$1,687 -34%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $60 +$42 +70%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5,000 +$60 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $4,969 +$576 +12%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 19 $3,146 +$543 +17%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $1,133 +$148 +13%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th Apr 03 $100 +$403 +403%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 19 $190 −$190 -100%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th Mar 19 $580 −$580 -100%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 18 $700 +$307 +44%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 09 $360 −$360 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $620 −$39 -6%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $574 −$74 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 21¢ $104 1h
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 21¢ $125 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,959 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $72 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $142 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $735 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $567 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 29¢ $300 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $81 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $1,573 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $1,659 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $5,000 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $5,060 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $5,000 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 97¢ $5,545 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 90¢ $2,469 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 86¢ $500 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 85¢ $1,000 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 84¢ $1,000 25d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $3,689 29d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,280 30d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1,133 35d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $3,146 35d
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th BUY Yes 20¢ $100 87d
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th BUY Yes 58¢ $580 90d
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? BUY Yes 28¢ $500 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.52 · official $220.52 (match) · 40 history records