Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1597…5750 sports 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$124 (-5%) realized −$118 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%95W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$26
14 days−$38
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$122
other 26% −$17
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -17.1% -25.0% 52% 52% -18.4%
≤30d 124 -17.6% -25.4% 52% 48% -22.8%
≤90d 164 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 55% -14.3%
all 164 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 55% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 55% -14.3%
10% -24.3% 50% -22.5%
15% -31.6% 37% -30.0%
20% -38.3% 21% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses95 / 69
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage160d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$5 -57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$12 +90%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$8 -83%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$6 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$3 +17%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$7 -65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$10 -67%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$5 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$5 +36%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$3 +33%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $15 +$4 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$8 +82%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$3 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $15 +$3 +17%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$3 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$5 +52%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $15 +$4 +29%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $15 +$5 +36%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $35 +$3 +10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $40 −$2 -5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $10 +$14 +134%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $10 +$6 +62%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $11 +$7 +64%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $10 −$1 -9%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $8 +$4 +51%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $50 −$41 -82%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $20 +$5 +26%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $20 +$1 +7%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $15 −$14 -91%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $40 −$5 -14%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 31 $15 +$5 +30%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $15 +$4 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $28 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $11 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $4 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 52¢ $11 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 11¢ $2 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 63¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $19 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $13 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 77¢ $15 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $16 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 64¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 53¢ $8 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $10 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $4 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $15 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $10 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 73¢ $15 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.00 · official $22.00 (match) · 344 history records