Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:32:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1597…1f25 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$318 (-21%) realized −$396 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$433
14 days−$410
30 days−$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$158
sports 23% −$71
politics 4% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -62.9% -66.4% 25% 12% -49.4%
≤30d 11 -45.1% -50.3% 36% 27% -34.1%
≤90d 12 -49.6% -54.4% 33% 25% -34.9%
all 13 -40.7% -46.3% 38% 31% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.3% 31% -32.7%
10% -51.5% 31% -39.2%
15% -56.2% 31% -45.0%
20% -60.5% 23% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$86 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized−$396
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage95d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $100 $182 +$82 (+82%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 51¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus Jun 27 $57 −$36 -62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $185 −$185 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots Jun 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $319 +$188 +59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $77 −$77 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $156 +$74 +47%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $99 +$60 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? May 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $34 +$23 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 51¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $102 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $22 2d
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 99¢ $22 2d
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus SELL No 8¢ $22 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY Yes 68¢ $200 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $185 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $507 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $319 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $77 10d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $156 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $99 16d
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY No 20¢ $57 55d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 94d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $34 95d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.28 · official $283.20 · 29 history records