Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x158f…cd81 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate88%21W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$598
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 88% 21% -18.3%
≤30d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 88% 21% -18.3%
≤90d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 88% 21% -18.3%
all 24 -0.6% -10.1% 88% 21% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 21% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 21% -26.1%
15% -26.5% 17% -33.2%
20% -33.7% 8% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$250 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses21 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $302 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $352 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $639 −$639 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $906 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $604 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $403 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $302 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $302 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $705 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $302 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $302 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $101 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $101 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $165 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $302 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $302 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $302 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $101 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records