Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x158e…1a2c sports 198 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$77 (+4%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%40W / 97L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$280
14 days+$444
30 days+$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$323
other 17% +$51
crypto 2% +$59
world 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 +6.3% -3.8% 28% 28% +15.2%
≤30d 137 +6.4% -3.7% 29% 29% +22.9%
≤90d 137 +6.4% -3.7% 29% 29% +22.9%
all 137 +6.4% -3.7% 29% 29% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 29% +22.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 28% +11.1%
15% -21.3% 28% +0.4%
20% -29.1% 23% -9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$3 · ×5.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses40 / 97
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 198
History coverage9d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $2 +$7 +441%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -82%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $3 +$7 +226%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $19 −$18 -97%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: 1st Half O Jun 27 $50 +$46 +92%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croa Jun 27 $5 +$16 +329%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? Jun 27 $4 +$3 +89%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $153 −$9 -6%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -80%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? AND Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Englan Jun 27 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 +$17 +169%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $24 −$18 -74%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $20 −$4 -21%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 27 $2 $0 -15%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? AND Will Algeria vs. Austr Jun 27 $3 −$1 -37%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $5 −$3 -70%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $10 +$23 +227%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -88%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -74%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-2 Jun 27 $5 −$4 -84%
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $2 +$7 +348%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $2 +$4 +211%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $3 −$1 -38%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $2 −$1 -45%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $4 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $4 +$2 +43%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $3 +$7 +203%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Austra Jun 26 $4 −$2 -56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 −$2 -33%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026- Jun 26 $2 −$2 -78%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $35 +$60 +172%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +21%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $4 +$6 +143%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $4 −$2 -43%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams Jun 25 $4 −$2 -60%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 −$3 -57%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 −$2 -47%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? AND Will Netherlands win on 20 Jun 25 $10 −$6 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Algeria vs. Austria: 1 BUY 39¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Will Argentina win on BUY 42¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? AND Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 BUY 37¢ $30 2h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL 1¢ $1 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY 35¢ $15 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY 41¢ $19 4h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27 BUY 5¢ $1 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY 86¢ $98 5h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? AND Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Englan BUY 20¢ $7 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY 7¢ $3 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? AND Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Englan BUY 6¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? AND Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Englan SELL 3¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 6h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? AND Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Englan BUY 6¢ $1 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: 1st Half O BUY 51¢ $50 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL 28¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? AND Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Englan BUY 3¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY 48¢ $55 23h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 23h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $152.92 · 419 history records