Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
15 0x158d…9c64 sports 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$123 (+0%) realized −$500 · open +$623
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%60W / 62L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$886per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$831est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,953now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,291
7 days+$4,467
14 days+$4,960
30 days+$4,394
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$2,923
world 10% −$8,630
economics 7% +$2,482
culture 5% +$2,689
other 4% +$421
finance 1% +$708
tech 1% +$51
politics 0% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +156.6% +132.1% 56% 56% -5.3%
≤30d 45 +137.8% +115.1% 56% 56% -5.7%
≤90d 87 +57.2% +42.2% 46% 46% -20.9%
all 122 +42.3% +28.8% 49% 48% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.8% 48% -11.9%
10% +16.4% 48% -20.3%
15% +5.2% 46% -28.0%
20% -5.1% 38% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +104% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$691 vs −$674 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$4,953
Realized−$500
Unrealized+$623
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses60 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$831
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage290d
Avg bet$886
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Over 59¢ 68¢ $4,328 $4,951 +$623 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,808 −$1,784 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $522 −$511 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3,041 −$3,000 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,269 +$1,279 +101%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,650 +$1,319 +80%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $2,026 +$1,568 +77%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,823 +$1,281 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $4,778 +$1,587 +33%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $291 −$286 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,522 −$1,500 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $4,258 +$3,338 +78%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $444 −$444 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $508 +$496 +98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1,521 +$448 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $427 +$196 +46%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $509 +$765 +150%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,997 +$1,898 +95%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,984 −$1,969 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $511 −$500 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1,522 −$1,500 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $512 +$1,770 +346%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $450 +$549 +122%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $255 −$250 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,298 +$1,666 +128%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,005 +$1,451 +72%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $487 +$486 +100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,052 −$2,030 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $506 +$342 +68%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $506 +$362 +71%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,103 +$1,269 +60%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $303 −$300 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $506 +$292 +58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $304 +$240 +79%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,356 +$538 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $427 +$467 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $152 +$111 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $364 +$415 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $509 −$500 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $548 −$542 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $572 −$24 -4%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $92 +$124 +135%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $230 +$218 +95%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $122 −$120 -98%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 03 $265 −$262 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5 Apr 19 $279 −$277 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $591 34m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $47 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $98 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $183 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $186 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $2,828 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $399 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $322 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $45 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1,441 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 24¢ $522 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3,041 16h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,548 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,269 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2,969 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,589 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $61 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $3,567 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $2,026 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $1,823 22h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $4,778 40h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $291 40h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,522 42h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $447 44h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $0 44h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 44h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $368 44h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $182 44h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $7,596 44h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $914 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,952.71 · official $4,951.12 (match) · 312 history records