Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x158c…0d14 other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 32L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% $0
other 37% +$13
politics 8% −$1
sports 8% $0
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 42 +0.6% -9.0% 24% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -8.7%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.4%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.92 per $1 lost it wins $7.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage263d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $72 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $35 +$12 +33%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $17 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 04 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 23m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $36 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $36 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $7 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $32 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $40 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $40 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records