Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x158a…47a7 world 63 markets active 5d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day71.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$4
politics 30% −$5
other 23% −$1
sports 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -1.0% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 63 -1.1% -10.5% 3% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 63 -1.1% -10.5% 3% 0% -10.3%
all 63 -1.1% -10.5% 3% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 0% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 61
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day71.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $34 $0 -1%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$1 -8%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -4%
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Dum Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $15 −$2 -10%
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 -1%
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 Jun 12 $41 $0 -1%
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Izquierdo Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Jun 11 $22 $0 +0%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 Jun 11 $23 $0 +2%
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit? Jun 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? Jun 11 $44 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential Jun 11 $17 $0 -2%
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 3 Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Jovic vs Anisimova Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Hanne Vandewinkel: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 $0 -1%
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Jun 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? Jun 10 $30 −$3 -9%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 10 $8 $0 -1%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 10 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 Fren Jun 10 $11 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 67¢ $33 4d
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 67¢ $3 4d
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $6 4d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $6 4d
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 38¢ $15 4d
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $15 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $5 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $22 4d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $22 4d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 4d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $14 4d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $41 4d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $26 5d
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 5d
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 5d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $14 5d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $14 5d
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? SELL No 59¢ $21 5d
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? BUY No 59¢ $21 5d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $12 5d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $12 5d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 84¢ $13 5d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 84¢ $13 5d
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 5d
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 233 history records