Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
15 0x158a…03fc world 38 markets active 4d ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,461 (+18%) realized +$1,507 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 25L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$300
14 days+$2,317
30 days+$2,317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$1,852
other 10% −$316
politics 5% −$38
finance 1% −$12
economics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -29.8% -36.5% 33% 33% +69.1%
≤90d 19 -40.2% -45.9% 11% 11% +20.2%
all 31 -28.6% -35.4% 19% 16% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 16% +18.8%
10% -41.6% 13% +7.5%
15% -47.2% 13% -2.9%
20% -52.4% 10% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$528 vs −$66 · ×7.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$704
Realized+$1,507
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 25
Open positions7
Markets (closed)31 / 38
History coverage163d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $173 −$27 (-14%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 54¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2,364 +$2,617 +111%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 25 $1,389 −$541 -39%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 09 $405 −$7 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Apr 08 $294 −$60 -20%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 08 $160 −$28 -18%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $10 −$1 -6%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 30 $150 +$75 +50%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 30 $446 −$114 -26%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $220 −$97 -44%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 27 $50 −$42 -83%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Mar 27 $100 −$28 -28%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $162 −$94 -58%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31? Mar 27 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Mar 27 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Mar 27 $83 −$32 -39%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $200 +$332 +166%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $80 +$120 +150%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 26 $45 −$31 -69%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? Jan 23 $20 −$7 -34%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 19 $49 −$41 -84%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 19 $123 +$20 +16%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $266 −$18 -7%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 16 $50 −$43 -86%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jan 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jan 13 $78 −$11 -14%
Ukraine hits Moscow by January 31? Jan 13 $41 −$27 -67%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jan 13 $154 +$6 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $103 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 6d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 6d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $207 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 28¢ $50 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 60d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $50 60d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 60d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 60d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $61 60d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $316 60d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $316 60d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $996 69d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $996 69d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $57 69d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 69d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $53 69d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $400 69d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 69d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $128 69d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $533 69d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 75d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $48 76d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 49¢ $148 76d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 76d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $130 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $703.72 · official $703.72 (match) · 175 history records