Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1586…cd6c crypto 694 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$48 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate76%523W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$0
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$110
weather 6% −$13
politics 3% −$5
other 1% +$17
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.8% -12.1% 78% 11% -8.0%
≤30d 330 -5.5% -14.5% 75% 35% -13.2%
≤90d 692 -8.0% -16.7% 76% 24% -12.6%
all 692 -8.0% -16.7% 76% 24% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 24% -12.6%
10% -24.7% 12% -21.0%
15% -32.0% 9% -28.6%
20% -38.7% 6% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses523 / 169
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)692 / 694
History coverage61d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 692 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Yes 30¢ 48¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+60%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 19 $96 +$8 +8%
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Jun 19 $96 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? SELL Yes 49¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? SELL Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? SELL No 94¢ $104 1h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 69¢ $91 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $1 14h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY No 72¢ $1 14h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY No 72¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $1 15h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY No 72¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $1 15h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY No 72¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $1 15h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY No 72¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $1 15h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY No 72¢ $1 15h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY No 72¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $1 15h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY No 72¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $1 15h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY No 72¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $1 15h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY No 72¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $1 15h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY No 72¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.58 · official $13.58 (match) · 1689 history records