Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1584…71b6 other 787 markets active 25d ago coverage 111d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$105,566 (+10%) realized +$103,625 · open +$1,941
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate18%197W / 869L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,333per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$6,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 111d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$285,015
other 27% −$258,808
tech 12% −$127,090
culture 10% −$89,330
economics 9% −$85,955
crypto 3% −$33,935
world 2% −$13,005
weather 2% −$20,361
sports 0% −$676
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -9.2% -17.9% 8% 7% -86.6%
≤30d 165 -8.9% -17.5% 8% 8% -76.6%
≤90d 177 -8.2% -16.9% 11% 10% -84.1%
all 934 -48.7% -53.6% 7% 6% -91.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.6% 6% -91.1%
10% -58.1% 6% -92.0%
15% ← realistic here -62.1% 5% -92.8%
20% -65.8% 5% -93.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$675) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -70% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$1,067 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$6,150
Realized+$103,625
Unrealized+$1,941
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses197 / 869
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Open positions185
Markets (closed)1066 / 787
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$1,333
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 185 History 1066 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 99¢ $35 $1,217 +$1,182 (+3344%)
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 89¢ 97¢ $261 $283 +$23 (+9%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? No 96¢ 94¢ $275 $269 −$6 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat? No 87¢ 84¢ $224 $217 −$8 (-3%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $130 $215 +$85 (+65%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $162 $193 +$31 (+19%)
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 72¢ 86¢ $151 $180 +$28 (+19%)
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat? No 82¢ 74¢ $199 $179 −$21 (-10%)
Will Stripe’s market cap be less than $80B at market close on IPO day? No 92¢ 100¢ $161 $174 +$13 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No 87¢ 82¢ $183 $172 −$11 (-6%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027? No 85¢ 99¢ $133 $156 +$23 (+17%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 58¢ $7 $155 +$148 (+2100%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $162 $141 −$21 (-13%)
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? No 85¢ 100¢ $110 $130 +$19 (+17%)
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? No 58¢ 50¢ $138 $118 −$20 (-15%)
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 71¢ 100¢ $83 $117 +$34 (+40%)
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 89¢ 81¢ $125 $115 −$11 (-8%)
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $109 $112 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No 38¢ 57¢ $73 $110 +$37 (+51%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $42 $109 +$67 (+157%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 1¢ $-19 $106 +$125 (-662%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 81¢ 100¢ $76 $94 +$18 (+23%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 80¢ $1 $81 +$80 (+6433%)
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? No 53¢ 98¢ $43 $80 +$37 (+85%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-19 $64 +$83 (-437%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 307 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vladimir Prebilič be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 29 $22 +$3 +13%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 29 $13 +$6 +50%
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary Jun 29 $0 +$4 +1567%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 29 $0 +$2 +1006%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 29 $0 +$2 +900%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +156%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on Janu Jun 29 $-6 +$6 —%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on December 21? Jun 29 $-4 +$4 —%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 29 $-4 +$4 —%
Will Hikari win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Player 194 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will More Chaos (Ken Carson) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRA Jun 29 $-1 +$1 —%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the February 2026 meeting? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in January 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Ernest Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 22? Jun 29 $-3 +$3 —%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $1 +$621 +85093%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 29 $-1 +$1 —%
Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $700M and $750M at marke Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 53°F or below on December 2 Jun 29 $-1 +$1 —%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 29 $-5 +$5 —%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 29 $-1 +$1 —%
Will Santa deliver fewer than 7,900,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Jun 29 $-11 +$11 —%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 38°F or higher on Jan Jun 29 $-3 +$3 —%
Will Tomio Okamura be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic af Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be between 1,6 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the US strike Colombia next? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will noMoarPoor win the Genesis Cup? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Ne Zha 2 be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 29 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by ≤2.0% in November? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 50-59 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026? Jun 29 $-1 +$1 —%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on No Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 1°C on January 5? Jun 29 $-2 +$2 —%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 29? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Emily Blunt win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 22-28 be between Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Am I Okay? (Megan Moroney) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annua Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on January 2? Jun 29 $-4 +$4 —%
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less Jun 29 $-1 +$1 —%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 20 Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,337 25d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $31 28d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 80¢ $532 28d
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $699 29d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $157 30d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $367 30d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $187 32d
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? SELL No 100¢ $232 32d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? SELL Yes 98¢ $63 33d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $5 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $4 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $2 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $8 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $0 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $2 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $0 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $2 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $3 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $2 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $2 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $3 82d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $0 83d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $2 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,149.52 · official $6,149.13 (match) · 3500 history records